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The Rise of the South: Second Great Divergence or Anthem of Global Frontiers?

Danny Simmons

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Published in SouthSouth Trade And Finance In The Twenty First Century: Rise Of The South Or A Second Great Divergence (Anthem Frontiers Of Global Political Economy)

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The 21st century has witnessed a significant shift in the global economic landscape, with the rise of emerging economies in the Global South. This phenomenon has sparked a debate about whether it represents a "Second Great Divergence" between the North and the South or an "Anthem of Global Frontiers."

The Second Great Divergence Perspective

Proponents of the Second Great Divergence view the rise of the South as a continuation of the historical pattern of economic divergence between the developed North and the developing South. They argue that:

SouthSouth Trade and Finance in the Twenty-First Century: Rise of the South or a Second Great Divergence (Anthem Frontiers of Global Political Economy)

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* Income Gap Widening: The economic gap between the North and the South has been increasing since the Industrial Revolution. As the South industrializes, the North benefits from technological advancements and increased productivity, further widening the income disparity. * Technological Divide: The South lags behind the North in technological innovation and adoption. This gap limits the South's ability to compete in high-value industries and creates a dependence on low-wage manufacturing. * Institutional Deficiencies: Weak institutions, corruption, and political instability in the South hinder economic development and prevent it from catching up with the North.

The Anthem of Global Frontiers Perspective

In contrast, proponents of the Anthem of Global Frontiers view the rise of the South as a positive development that represents a shift away from traditional North-South economic hierarchies. They argue that:

* Globalization and Integration: Globalization has facilitated the integration of the South into the global economy. Trade, investment, and technology transfer have created opportunities for growth and development in the South. * Emerging Industrialization: Some Southern countries are experiencing rapid industrialization and economic diversification. This is challenging the traditional view of the South as a source of raw materials and labor. * Innovation Hubs: Southern countries are becoming hubs for innovation and technological advancements. They contribute to global knowledge and problem-solving, blurring the boundaries between the North and the South.

Economic Indicators and Trends

Economic indicators provide evidence for both perspectives.

Divergence:

* Between 1980 and 2020, the average per capita income in high-income countries increased by 180%, while it increased by only 70% in low-income countries. * The share of global manufacturing output in the South has declined from 40% in 1990 to 25% in 2020, indicating a loss of industrial competitiveness.

Convergence:

* The share of global GDP contributed by low- and middle-income countries has increased from 42% in 1980 to 58% in 2020. * Some Southern countries, such as China and India, have experienced rapid economic growth and increased their technological capabilities. * The number of patents granted in the South has increased significantly, suggesting growing innovation.

Policy Implications

The debate between the Second Great Divergence and the Anthem of Global Frontiers has significant policy implications.

* Reducing Income Disparity: Policies aimed at reducing income inequality between the North and the South are crucial to prevent further divergence. This includes promoting trade, investing in infrastructure, and providing access to education and technology in the South. * Investing in Innovation: The South needs to invest heavily in research and development to close the technological gap with the North. This requires creating strong institutions, promoting public-private partnerships, and fostering a culture of innovation. * Globalization with Equity: Globalization should be managed in a way that benefits all countries, not just the North. This involves promoting fair trade practices, reducing barriers to entry for Southern goods, and addressing global economic imbalances.

The rise of the South is a complex and multifaceted phenomenon that challenges traditional views of North-South economic relations. Elements of both the Second Great Divergence and the Anthem of Global Frontiers are evident, suggesting a nuanced and evolving relationship between the North and the South. By understanding these perspectives and implementing appropriate policies, we can harness the potential of the South's rise to create a more just and equitable global economy.

The Rise Of The South: A Global Economic Transformation SouthSouth Trade And Finance In The Twenty First Century: Rise Of The South Or A Second Great Divergence (Anthem Frontiers Of Global Political Economy)